AUD/USD Forecast and News
AUD/USD rallies toward 0.6600 on risk flows, hawkish RBA expectations
AUD/USD extends gains toward 0.6600 in the Asian session on Monday. The Aussie pair is underpinned by increased bets of an RBA rate hike at its May policy meeting after the previous week's hot Australian CPI data. Risk flows also power the pair's upside.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
AUD/USD trades in the 0.6540s as it continues rallying after the release of US core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index data for March. Despite the data showing a higher than expected rate of inflation, the US Dollar (USD) shows little reaction in most pairs, including AUD/USD, which looks like it will clock up its fifth daily gain in a row assuming a bullish close on Friday.
Fundamental Overview
US core PCE came in at 2.8% YoY in March – higher than the 2.6% expected and the 2.8% previous, whilst headline PCE rose 2.7%, which was also higher than the 2.6% expected and 2.5% previous. On month, the PCE data came out in line with expectations.
The US Dollar’s lack of reaction could be put down to its already pricing in inflationary GDP data for the first quarter on Thursday, which pre-empted the inflationary core PCE data.
Although the rate of US GDP growth slowed in Q1, the GDP Price Index component, which measures goods inflation, rose much higher than previously. As a result of the data the US Dollar strengthened in most pairs and AUD/USD pared its earlier gains, falling to a low 0.6486 after the release.
Australian factory price inflation data out overnight, however, gave fresh impetus to the pair, after it showed a rise 4.3% YoY in Q1 from 4.1% in the previous quarter. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data added further evidence of price pressures in the Australian economy after Q1 CPI data beat expectations on Thursday giving a lift to AUD/USD in the process.
Persistent inflation means the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is seen as the last G10 bank likely to cut interest rates, with some analysts now delaying calls for an RBA rate cut until February 2025. The expectation that Aussie interest rates will fall more slowly than in other countries is supportive for the AUD as relatively higher interest rates attract greater capital inflows.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0700, eyes on German CPI data
EUR/USD trades on a stronger note around 1.0710 during the early Monday. The weaker US Dollar below the 106.00 mark provides some support to the major pair. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected.
GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.2500 on weaker US Dollar, Fed rate decision looms
The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.2520 on Monday during the early Asian session. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the softer US Dollar below the 106.00 psychological mark. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision and Press Conference on Wednesday.
USD/JPY recovers 156.00 after testing 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention
USD/JPY has recovered some ground above 156.00 after crashing to 155.00 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action.
Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend?
Gold price is seeing a negative start to a new week on Monday, having booked a weekly loss. Gold price bears the brunt of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand and a risk-on market mood amid Japanese holiday-thinned market conditions.
WTI slides below $83.00 amid demand concerns, supply disruption fears to limit losses
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note and slide below the $83.00/barrel mark during the Asian session.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the Aussie-US Dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 AUD/USD forecast!
AUD/USD FORECAST 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started 2023 on a high note, though slumped closer to its post-pandemic low against the USD during the latter part of the year. The currency clawed back some of its steep declines during the final two months of 2023, and the outlook seems sunnier in the wake of the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR AUD/USD
Will the Fed will achieve a soft landing? The current market pricing for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank next year might have already set the stage for a disappointment and favours the USD bulls. This should allow the USD to resume the prior uptrend witnessed since July 2023 and keep a lid on a runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming US Presidential election could also play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and driving the aussie.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).